'In 2025, India’s oil imports from Russia made up 33% of the country’s total seaborne oil imports and 25% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports. A new trade agreement between the US and
"In 2025, India’s oil imports from Russia made up 33% of the country’s total seaborne oil imports and 25% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports. A new trade agreement between the US and India could, according to US President Donald Trump, put an end to that trade,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
On Monday, President Trump announced that a new trade agreement between the US and India would lead to mutual tariff reductions. US tariffs on Indian goods would fall from 50% to 18% and Indian tariffs on US goods could fall to zero. However, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has yet to publicly confirm the Indian tariff reduction.
In addition, President Trump announced that the deal included Indian commitments to end oil purchases from Russia while significantly increasing purchases of US energy and goods. India has yet to confirm this part of the agreement.
“During the first five weeks of 2026, Russian oil exports to India have already fallen 34% year-on-year. The reduction could be due to the EU restrictions on purchase, import and transfer of oil products refined from Russian crude oil,” says Rasmussen.
While it is too early to conclude that the Russia-India oil trade will
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