Ammonia, Fertilizer Trade Threatened by Strait of Hormuz Conflict

The trade of global fertilizer and ammonia faces intense pressure due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz as diplomatic talks between the US and Iran remain uncertain. Rystad Energy’s 2025 trade mapping shows that the sale of 15% of global ammonia and 21% of urea, which is used as a high-nitrogen fertilizer, are tied to exporters potentially impacted by the closure. This includes leading producers Saudi Arabia and Qatar, followed by Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Iran and Iraq. Our analysis predicts this sustained logistics shock will threaten the already strained ammonia and urea market and could quickly spill over to food and agriculture supply chains, starting with the countries most exposed to these trade flows.

“For policymakers and buyers, the energy security and food security message here is clear. More than one-fifth of urea traded by these Middle East exporters has direct implications for crop growth and farming, with India standing as the most exposed, importing around 6% to 8% of fertilizer from these Gulf countries. The strait’s closure can translate into real downstream risk quickly, including possible food shortages, manufacturing disruptions, compromised water integrity, and other significant global challenges, depending on the length of the war,”