Hormuz Closure Could Send Oil to $200 and Trigger Global Recession, Wood Mackenzie Warns

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could become the most severe global energy supply shock in decades, with oil prices potentially nearing $200 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, according to new analysis from Wood Mackenzie.

The consultancy said more than 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and condensate production remains curtailed, while more than 80 million tonnes per year of LNG supply — roughly 20% of global supply — is still inaccessible to global markets.

“The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far