The Daily View: Flower moon Friday

THE May full moon, known as a flower moon representing the peak of spring, growth and new opportunity will be visible in the sky above the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.

There are at least a few shipowners hoping it may represent an opportunity to quietly exit the Middle East Gulf with all lights out, AIS switched off and fingers crossed.

As risky as that sounds, there is a growing sense among many of the owners with trapped ships that they are going to have to look at all options and windows of opportunity given any hope of a swift end to the conflict is not imminent.

There have been just 15 transits through the strait so far this week and most of those were linked to Iran.

In the wake of the US blockade, it seems operators who were previously willing to transit having paid for safe passage are no longer moving.

The US Treasury made clear this week that any such payment to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which they designate a terrorist organisation, comes with some obvious sanctions risk.

That will not have come as updated news to anyone in shipping, but the statement heavily implies the US is prepared to go after shipowners who do, or possibly have already paid.

How they would go about proving those transactions remains unclear and despite multiple requests from industry, legal and government officials, the US Treasury is yet to clarify its intention or plan.

The Central Bank of Iran has opened four accounts in rials, yuan, US dollars and euros to receive toll payments collected by the Revolutionary Guard’s navy, according to Iranian statements. Digital currency payments will be facilitated, and Iran’s Parliament will move to make the toll system binding law at its first session by approving a bill titled “Hormuz Strait Security Plan”.

That is not a plan the US is willing to countenance and so the stand-off over the waterway that has persisted despite the ceasefire in early April continues.

For those shipowners willing to consider windows of opportunity in the meantime, the options remain risky. Pay the toll and deal with US Treasury later or take the moonlight run via Oman’s territorial waters with no permission and fingers crossed.

For the moment it seems that most are understandably unwilling to take either option and as a result Hormuz remains largely still under the flower moon.

Richard Meade,
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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