UN Security Council Expected to Vote Down Use-of-Force Request for Hormuz
Three of the permanent members of the UN Security Council have signaled that they do not support a motion to authorize use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to the New York Times. Russia and China were widely expected to oppose the measure, given their diplomatic ties to Tehran; they are reportedly joined by France, which has publicly opposed a military solution.
The proposed UN Security Counsel resolution is spearheaded by Iran's neighbors in the Gulf, and it has been the subject of intense but quiet negotiations for weeks. The latest version viewed by the Times would permit any UN member state to use all necessary means to secure transit rights through the Strait of Hormuz and to deter any further attempts to close the waterway.
The language is expected to come up for a formal vote on Friday. Any of the five permanent UNSC members could block it with a veto; with three in opposition, its odds of passage are limited.
Iran's leadership has suggested that it has no plans to give up control of the strait, which it has turned into a tollway channel administered by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Within weeks of the U.S.-Israeli attack on February 28, the IRGC took control of the strait and set up an administrative structure for its management. Per Bloomberg, it has a fee schedule; payment arrangements; vessel vetting procedures; security escorts; and exceptions for friendly nations. China, Pakistan and India have already arranged to use the transit lane for limited numbers of vessel transits, and some commercial shipowners are believed to be making their own arrangements with the IRGC as well.
Ending this new status quo by force would be "unrealistic," French President Emanuel Macron said on Thursday. "It would take an inordinate amount of time and would expose anyone crossing the strait to coastal threats from the Revolutionary Guards," he said. In addition to cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drone boats, suicide drones and attack boats, the IRGC has access to a stockpile of mines for forcing the strait's closure.
France and dozens of other stakeholders are pursuing a purely diplomatic track. On Thursday, a coalition of 40 countries joined in a virtual meeting hosted by the UK to discuss "diplomatic and economic tools" to support the "safe and sustained" opening of the strait. Participants included the UAE, Italy, the Netherlands, and the EU, represented by top diplomat Kaja Kallas; the United States did not participate. The coalition's objective is "restoring safe, toll-free freedom of navigation" in the strait by diplomatic means.
The need to increase traffic through the waterway is getting acute for energy-importing nations. Brent physical cargoes for prompt delivery hit $141 per barrel on Thursday, and European diesel futures surged to $200 per barrel. The EU is preparing for all possibilities to adapt to a "long-lasting" energy shock with high fuel prices for a "very long time," European Union energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen told the FT this week. In lower-income nations in Asia, like Sri Lanka, fuel rationing and shortages are becoming part of the landscape.
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For its part, Iran said Thursday that it is working out a plan with Oman on a long-term proposal to "monitor" the Strait of Hormuz, which would "facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships passing through this route." Energy markets were not reassured: Brent front-month futures jumped back up eight percent overnight, returning to $109 per barrel.
Top image: An Emirati patrol boat on display, 2025 (MZtourist / CC BY 4.0)
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